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Are all Your Ducks in a Row? A Guide to Influence in the Upcoming “Lame Duck” Session of Congress

John Chwat • Oct 06, 2020
The period of time spanning from the close of national elections on November 3rd and ending on December 31st, is considered a very special time for the old and new Congress. It is a time for the institution to gather together and make key decisions which will impact policy and funding in the coming years. This short eight-week period is known in Washington as the “Lame Duck” session of Congress, but nothing could be farther from the truth. This session is definitely not “lame”, nor will move as slowly as a “duck”. Most believe that after the November election, the present Congress, composed of both returning and defeated members and their staffs, disappear and close their offices. While some do start to pack up, all members continue to have an impact and can vote on key legislation. Most observers of the U.S. Congress ignore the “end game” at the conclusion of a year and most often also ignore the last weeks of Congress’ two-year cycle. For the current Congress this will be Monday, January 4th, which will mark the shift from the 116th Congress to the new 117th Congress. However, for those who understand this complex process, the “Lame Duck” Congress is vitally important for the future. Here are some reasons to consider:

Funding the Government: The multi-trillion-dollar funding of the U.S. Government and all of the policies, programs, and procurement that this entails, is left to mid-December for a long-overdue Fiscal Year (FY) 2021 bill. The Fiscal Year began October 1, 2020, and true to the process, the detailed allocations were extended to December, based on agency funding at last year’s levels. This Lame Duck session is involved in determining final appropriations legislation, which is usually wrapped up into an Omnibus bill. This bill is thousands of pages long and incorporates all funding decisions that will last through September 30, 2021. Retiring and defeated members of Congress in both the House and Senate, especially those on the Appropriations (funding) committees, will make these decisions on provisions relating to millions of dollars in funding for projects, programs, and specific line items. The funding decisions to be made during this eight-week period will impact FY21 and FY22 for Coronavirus stimulus allocations (in many cases billions of dollars to agencies). As well as, final FY21 “Reports” language included in a final bill that traditionally carries directives and agency policies on how best to fund programs.

Consideration of Final Bills Delayed in the 2020 Elections: The end of a session of Congress such as this year will bring a host of final votes on bills that have been pending resolution during the 116th Congress. One example is the reauthorization of a host of key programs, such as the National Flood Insurance Program. Legislation in dozens of areas and committee jurisdictions miraculously move quickly to the House and Senate floors for passage and are sent along to the White House for Presidential signature.

Decisions on Congressional Leadership: The “old” Congress set to leave by start of the New Year will have considerable influence over the next Congressional leadership. This influence is not just in the committees and subcommittee chairmanships, but in the leadership itself. Many of the committees and subcommittees, where most of the work of Congress is done, have vacancies to fill within the Democratic and Republican party organizing groups during this period. While final votes by each party conference or caucus is left to the early part of the 117th Congress in January-February 2021, the races and battles for these positions are not only underway now, but decisions will be made usually during this Lame Duck session. Whoever is the new chairman or ranking minority member of a committee or subcommittee will determine key goals and positions well into the next two years.

The Lame Duck session retains the “old” and “new” members of Congress. As of the end of September, over 46 House members and 5 Senators are set to retire. To these figures are added members who will lose their elections on November 3rd. A turnover of 10-15 % in each of the 435 House and 100 Senate seats is a low figure to expect for 2020. Here are some considerations on actions during this short period:
Target new members of Congress who will be housed in a certain location that permits them to interview for top staff positions and to attend training sessions by each of the party officials. A newly elected member can be identified either before or right after the election and usually they will be accompanied by their campaign manager or close confidant. Engaging early with them, is a key. Some of the new 117th Congress members are already identified. For example, House members who have won primaries in districts that overwhelmingly elect that member’s party to office. There are also returning members who will not lose their elections this November. There is also a smaller group of House members (in the range of 40-50 members) in marginal or open seats. These are key members to follow for influence. New members can be encouraged to compete for various committee appointments by State Congressional leadership, as well as to introduce 2021 issues.

Influence old members with positions of power. Before they leave, members of Congress in the “Lame Duck” have votes and the ability to finalize programs and project priorities. Provided they have been influenced during this present Congress, final decisions that they can bring to bear will be undertaken during this end of session.
During this November-December period, it is most important not to forget the governmental process and the influence of departments and agencies going forward. The following are key items to consider:
All departments and agencies should have their “pass-backs” (last-minute requests for reconsideration) on FY 2022 programs by the Office of Management and Budget. A key date is at the end of November following the Thanksgiving holiday. This is usually a deadline for decisions on the next fiscal year budget that the White House will be presenting to Congress after the State of the Union in February 2021. However, this November 3rd “might” be a transitional period for a new Administration. In this case that budget will be dead on arrival as the new President will change these recommendations. Most influencers have been careful to create presentations and positions on the next year's budgets for their various programs and policies during 2020.

Transition Office: Should November 3rd bring a new Administration to Washington, the transition offices will be working very hard in those eight weeks to select Department and Agency officials (and top staff) for appointment after the swearing-in of the new President. Transition offices and I have been through many of these over many decades and understand how critical they are for influencers to make presentations to and target new government officials on key policies for the coming four years.

This coming November-December 2020 “Lame Duck” session can be fraught with exceptions to the typical transitional rules. For example, in 2018, there was an appropriations allocation that was signed into law by the President for the following year (FY2018, Public Law 115-141, signed March 23, 2018). This was almost six months after the start of the fiscal year. In the past, most of the fiscal Omnibus Public Laws were signed by the President in the period before Christmas in December for FY 2016, 2012, 2008; all transitional years. Despite these and other factors, those who are prepared for the rushed and critical decisions to be made in the eight weeks after the national elections will be successful. Are you prepared? The McKeon Group is!

John Chwat is a Senior Vice President of the McKeon Group, he can be reached via email at johnchwat@mckeongrp.com or on the phone at (571) 447-5001. 

By John Chwat, Sr. VP 03 May, 2023
The last session of the U.S. Congress witnessed an unusual number of funding techniques designed to appropriate money for federal agencies and programs well beyond the typical one-year allocations. Whether this phenomenon resulted from Democratic priorities in both the House and Senate remains to be seen. It is also unclear if it will continue under Republican House control during the 1st Session of the 118th Congress. Most professionals and groups, both foreign and domestic, targeting U.S. Congressional funding actions, avoid reviewing multi-year allocations and often do not take into consideration the benefits that federal agencies gain from making programmatic or political funding decisions based on large sums of future money in their budgets. One bill that passed Congress and was signed into public law, the "Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Appropriations Act," allocated over $197 billion in advanced funding for federal agencies from Fiscal Year (FY) 23-26, providing money for three future fiscal years. The Department of the Interior, for example, was allotted over $1.6 billion each FY from 2024, 2025, and 2026 for "water and related resources," which will have an immense impact on department staff who will have these funds available for dispensing in addition to their annual appropriations budget requests to Congress for these future years. Advanced Appropriations One key technique used effectively in legislation by both the House and the Senate last year was called "Advanced Appropriations." Congress passed bills that included funding not just for the fiscal year being considered, but also for longer periods, in some cases up to five years into the future. The following are examples of selected future funding provisions found within the "Consolidated Appropriations Act": • For the Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, airports, and terminal facilities, funds were allocated from FY24 to 27, the latter being available by the FAA until September 30, 2027. • For the Department of Justice, state and local law enforcement and crime prevention programs, one major category was a "Safer Communities program," funded with a total of $1.6 billion from FY23 to FY26. • For the Department of Housing and Urban Development's "Homeless Assistance Grants," the bill funded $3.6 billion "...to remain available until September 30th, 2026." • The most extreme example of multi-year funding in this bill provided the Department of Agriculture with $100 million "...to remain available until September 30, 2031, for administrative costs." This funding extends eight fiscal years into the future. The following multi-year funding techniques appeared last year in other than appropriations legislation: • Public Law 117-167, which included the "CHIPs Act," provided funding for a robust and domestic semiconductor manufacturing initiative. It granted $31 billion to the Department of Commerce for FY22 and 23, extending to $46.3 billion in FY24, $6.1 billion in FY25, and $6.8 billion in FY26. These funds would be in addition to other budget requests made in these future years. In the same bill, the Department of Defense received $400 million for FY23, as well as an additional yearly $400 million for FY24, 25, 26, and 27, granting $1.6 billion over these four future fiscal years to be used by the Secretary of Defense at his discretion. The funds could be "...merged with accounts in the DoD," with the only prohibition being that they could not be used for "...construction of facilities." In the same provision, the Department of State received $100 million for each year from FY 24-27, and the National Science Foundation received $50 million for the same period, allocating an additional sum of over $600 million for four fiscal years into the future. In Public Law 117-169, the “Inflation Reduction Act,” Section 30001 of a comprehensive bill provided the Department of Defense with $500 million for the implementation of the Defense Production Act (DPA), "...to remain available until September 30, 2024." This allocation, consisting of a single sentence without any restrictions or additional information, is not related to any other subject matter in the bill. It also represents a future allocation for one additional fiscal year beyond the DPA funding in the DoD FY23 appropriations legislation, which falls within the $600 million range. There are other multi-year funding techniques that professionals and those seeking to influence Congress and the U.S. government in their budget considerations should be aware of and incorporate into their strategy and tactics. For example, when finalizing their annual defense-related funding requests to Congress, most requests included in the detailed budget justification materials fall into "Program Elements" (PEs) with specific line-item numbers and categories within the Services at the Defense-Wide (DW) level, extending over five fiscal years. Therefore, for planning and presentation purposes, recent documents include targeted funding through FY2027. While these are authorizations and not appropriations funding requests, they significantly impact the final DoD Appropriations bill from the House and Senate. It remains to be seen if these multi-year funding allocations will be included in the Fiscal Year 2024 final appropriations bills during this Session of Congress. They are a critical part of the funding decision-making cycle and can play a significant role in determining the final outcome of funds allocated to programmatic or policy initiatives.
By John Chwat, Sr. VP 28 Sep, 2022
The next 120 days, from September until the end of December, create a PERFECT STORM for a variety of critical decisions by the U.S. Congress and government. It impacts all who seek to influence outcomes and to understand complex funding allocations, details in the policy process, and how to maneuver in the last days of the 117 th Congress. Over 22% of the US House Members, and all their staffs, will not be in office after the end of this year. The same is true for many Senate offices and Members as well. What actions should one consider in a “lame duck” Congress after the November 8 th National elections? How does one identify and influence unprecedented federal government actions and major regulatory agendas? Achieving success in this PERFECT STORM requires those that can navigate and avoid negative outcomes, with consideration for: The start of the next Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 on October 1 st , with decisions yet to be made on all appropriations legislation. The spending priorities for FY22-31, creating a new phenomenon called “advanced appropriations”, impacting future agency funding levels. The Impact of the November 8 th elections which will create a new majority in the US House, and possibly in the US Senate, which will influence new directions for 2023-2024. The final decisions on the next cycle of Administration proposed funding and policy initiatives for FY 2024 to be presented to the next 118 th Congress. Advanced Appropriations over many Fiscal Years : One of the key take-aways from recent Congressional passage of massive, multi-Trillion-dollar legislation, which spans over multiple Fiscal Years, has been a relatively new funding technique called “advanced appropriations.” The majority in both the U.S. House and Senate, have disregarded the established practice of annual appropriations bills for agency programs and have resorted to funding programs over a multi-fiscal year basis. Several examples are as follows: Public Law 117-169, “Inflation Reduction Act,” August 16, 2022, allocates funding over a ten fiscal year basis. Examples within this act include; $250M funding for the National Park Service over 10 years ($2.5B). The US Postal Service receives a total of $1.29B, over 10 years from for the purchase of zero-emission vehicles and an additional $1.71B for infrastructure. Public Law 117-167, “CHIPs Act,” August 2,2022 (Section 102) appropriates $52B over five years for the Department of Commerce and $2B on semiconductor chip manufacturing for the Defense Department over a 5-year period. These funding appropriations provides an agency or program with huge allocations, giving tremendous authority and decision-making ability to federal officials to determining the rules for who secures the funds and how they are dispensed. For example, Long-range projections of funding within the Pentagon might include details over a five-year period. This multi- year effort creates new targeting for agency official presentations, requests over a longer period, and strategies to meet these new demands. A new Fiscal Year begins October 1st: This Congress ends on December 31 st , 2022, and the new 118 th Congress begins in January. All bills not passed by the end of this year “die.” Therefore, bills providing for the over $1.2T federal budget have pending legislation in the Congress. If not passed by October 1 st , to avoid a “shutdown” of the federal government, Congress passes what is called a “continuing resolution” (CR). This CR funds the government at the rate last approved by Congress for each agency (this would be at FY2022 levels). It is possible that the political nature of the divided Congress may delay funding past October 1 st . Last year, a “Consolidated Appropriations Act,” was signed into law on March 15, 2022, 165 days after the funding was to begin. These funding decisions have impacts that merit consideration in these 120 day period: Critical changes in federal policy directives inserted in legislation by Congress or line-item allocations for specific programs can be tremendously impacted if delayed. These decisions are made away from the floor of the House and Senate by a joint conference committee of leadership and professional staff. Many of these specific funding items impact national defense programs within the DoD. Changes that will occur after the November 8 th national elections in the funding committee leadership, especially chairs of Committees and subcommittees with their professional staffs, are critical to outcomes. This is true both in the final stages of this Congress, but more so for developing policy and funding for the next one. Keeping one eye on the elections for Congress can be a crucial decision in the next 120 days. Aside from the “advanced appropriations” programs, during this FY transition, some key targets for presentation include officials at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). OMB is considered the key group that advises the White House on agency budget decisions, as well as proposed budget impacts. Also, consideration in the next cycle for FY24 is crucial. Final OMB and White House decisions on that budget are to be made after Thanksgiving and prior to Christmas for presentation to the Congress after the State of the Union in early 2023. The next 120 days includes many other critical deadlines and decision-making events in government relations for impacting the U.S. Congress and Federal agencies. Some of these to consider are as follows: The NDAA: Resolution of the final National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for FY2023, which passed the House and has been “filed” in the Senate. The NDAA in the Senate has seen 900+ amendments for consideration by the leadership and there will be a final Conference Committee between the House and Senate Armed Services Committees prior to sending it to the White House. This is a major pending bill of an $800B+ magnitude which is a must pass effort this year. Laws that are expiring: There is a host of laws that will expire within the next 120 days, and many of these are quite important to various programs and constituencies. An example is the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) which expires September 30, 2022. Most of these provisions will probably be “kicked down the road” so to speak into the 118 th Congress for final resolution. Regulations by each federal agency: With a host of bills signed into law with key provisions requiring agency regulations for implementing the program, grant, or policy, it is anticipated that the agency regulatory processes will be working overtime at the end of the year and into the 1 st Quarter of 2023. These regulations for once a bill is signed into law are being drafted and reviewed within the agency and influencers are working to project their requirements into the final rule that will be published in the Federal Register for public comment. Many of the FY22-23 decisions referenced above will also have a major impact at the state level once funding is allocated either by formula or directly by the highest agency official.
By Chairman McKeon 18 Aug, 2022
As we look forward to November and the midterm elections, one topic seems to be on the minds of all Americans, inflation. For Americans, inflation is different than any other political issue. That is due chiefly to the fact that it is felt on a personal level. It is felt when you go to put gas in your car. It is felt when you are trying to put food on the table. It is felt when you must live with the constant insecurity of whether an unexpected expense will drive you into debt. Inflation is the definition of a “kitchen table” issue. It is hard to be concerned about secondary issues like climate change or partisan talking points when you are living paycheck to paycheck. With this being the case, Congress and the Administration need to be making every effort to tamp down inflation and provide Americans with the peace of mind that things will get better soon. However, the efforts currently being made by the Administration and the majority in Congress consistently fall short and, in some cases, only exacerbate the problem. Take the “Inflation Reduction Act” for example. Despite the appealing name, economists have determined the $739 Billion bill will do nothing to reduce near-term inflation. In fact, University of Pennsylvania economists behind the Penn Wharton Budget Model state the legislation’s likely impact on inflation is "statistically indistinguishable from zero." The Congressional Budget Office has also reviewed the bill and concluded it would have a "negligible" impact on inflation over the next two years. With these facts being what they are, can we really call this bill the “Inflation Reduction Act”? If the “Inflation Reduction Act” does not reduce inflation, then what does it do? What are the key policies this act will implement? For the most part, the bill covers climate issues, health care, green energy, and tax enforcement. One must ask the obvious question; are these really the issues Americans are worried about during record high inflation rates? The bill will also raise taxes on American families, manufacturers, and energy producers. These measures do nothing to relieve the struggles of everyday Americans and may work only to exacerbate them. However, perhaps the most concerning provision in the bill is the addition of 87,000 new IRS agents. The administration claims these additional agents will be used to ensure rich corporations and individuals “pay their fair share”. However, I have seen first-hand that this is simply not the case. During my first 8 years in Congress, the Clinton administration also expanded the IRS. I saw many of my constituents impacted by the aggressive nature of this expanded IRS, many of whom were average middle-class families. I am deeply concerned that history will repeat itself and this IRS hiring binge will see middle-class families targeted at a time when they are already struggling economically. Congress needs to put forward real solutions to fight inflation and ease the burden that the citizens of this country are feeling each and every day. How can we expect the American people to support the “world-changing” policies outlined in this bill when they are struggling to afford the bare necessities of life?
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